The virus that rocked supply and demand in China has now caused a global shock. Developing countries in East Asia and Pacific (East Asia and Pacific, EAP), which are in the process of recovering from trade tensions and the fight against the virus attack, are now faced with the prospect of global financial shocks and recessions.
Previously relatively good resilience, demonstrated during the recent crisis, is now being tested again. What recent trade and health shocks weaken the ability of countries in the East Asia and Pacific region to deal with the third shock?
Stable growth, sound macroeconomic policies, and prudent financial regulation have prepared many East Asia and Pacific region countries to deal with standard shocks.
But what we are seeing now is an unusual combination of distractions. Significant economic disruption seems unavoidable in all countries. Likewise, the risk of financial instability, especially in countries with excessive debt.
This extraordinary situation requires an extraordinary response: national action, courage, deep regional and global cooperation, and significant external assistance.
This report will focus on the economic costs, which also cost
man. We recognize that in a rapidly changing environment, every report and update will
risk becoming obsolete quickly. Therefore, in addition to displaying the estimated economic impact, the report
It is also complemented by analysis of developments, channels of impact and policy options, which
may have more lasting added value.
EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC DURING COVID-19:
The COVID-19 shock will also severely impact poverty levels and well-being, where it occurs through illness, death, and loss of income.
Based on the solid growth scenario, the number that can move out of the poverty line in all countries in the East Asia and Pacific region will be reduced by about 24 million people compared to if there was no pandemic.
In the lower case scenario, poverty is estimated to increase by about 11 million people. Households associated with the sector that are affected will receive a more severe negative impact.
For example, the poverty rate can double among households in Vietnam associated with a manufacturing sector that relies on imported inputs. So also in some Pacific Island States where tourism is an essential source of employment.
Though these estimates for GDP and poverty are projections, they reveal the magnitude of potential pressures on the economy and the need for immediate action.
This unprecedented shock requires a strong response from all countries and strong support from the international community. Regarding policy, six main conclusions emerge from the analysis.
First, countries in the East Asia and Pacific region need to adjust policies related to the health sector and macroeconomic policies.
To prevent the spread of infection, many governments are taking steps toward transmission controls such as lockdowns and travel bans to “flatten the curve” pandemic.”
In parallel, to reduce the adverse economic impact of policies In such cases, the government needs to take monetary, fiscal and structural measures to “flatten the recession curve.”
But better health and economic outcomes can be achieved through a mix of policies. For example, countries such as Singapore and the Republic of Korea,
which learned from the experiences of SARS 2003 and MERS 2015, appears to have achieved the results of more effective deployment control with more effective measures
not too disruptive to the economy, such as inspection/testing, tracking, and quarantine with a level of
tall. Their experience shows that the initial investment in oversight and capacity to respond
to the threat of infectious diseases can reduce the need to take appropriate countermeasures
expensive. The sooner other countries create such a controlling capacity, the faster they can end the economic hardship due to strict countermeasures. Even though
it can shorten recovery time, but can be a difficult challenge, especially for countries
poorest in the area.
EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATES:
not too disruptive to the economy, such as inspection/testing, tracking, and quarantine with an elevated level. Their experience shows that the initial investment in oversight and capacity to respond to the threat of infectious diseases can reduce the need to take appropriate countermeasures.
The sooner other countries create such a controlling capacity, the faster they can end the economic hardship due to strict countermeasures. That, even though it can shorten recovery time, can be a difficult challenge, especially for countries poorest in the area.
Second, capacity related to the health sector needs to be added urgently due to potential demand risks being very large for a sustained period. It has been found that there is a lack of inspection capacity testing even in some developed countries.
The number of infections requiring treatment is projected to far exceed hospital capacity in the 18 months before a vaccine may be available.
In addition to improving the treatment facilities conventional health and medical equipment manufacturing capacity, innovative measures to consider and improved, among others,
is to prepare a regular bed in the hospital to be used as an ICU; use a car factory to make a mask-making machine; and train people who can’t carry out their everyday work (e.g., restaurant, hotel and airline employees) to work in the field of primary health care. To ensure adequate access for the poor, the government may need free or subsidized examination/testing and treatment.
In this pandemic situation many Companies are providing online Platform for remotely work . And many education departments face many difficulties but some institutes are offering online training for surviving financial problems. Like freelancing training, IT training.
